As the new year unfolds,the investment landscape for crude oil-related Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) funds has been notably vibrant.The consistent upward movement in the net asset values of these funds has raised expectations among investors and analysts alike.In fact,during the first month of the year,these oil-based QDIIs have demonstrated a substantial performance,with nine out of the past ten days recording gains.This remarkably strong trend stands in stark contrast to their technology-heavy counterparts,which have largely fallen off the radar in terms of performance rankings.

By January 13th,a striking observation emerged: the top ten performing QDII products were predominantly those linked to commodities such as crude oil and gold.This situation has sparked significant predictions within the industry,with many experts suggesting that these oil-related QDIIs might replicate the stellar performance seen in 2021.Various fund managers have pointed to the current scenario of low global oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding supply factors as key indicators that could support rising oil prices.Thus,the sentiment remains that international oil prices could stabilize at a strategic low while having the potential for upward momentum.

In the early days of 2025,there is a clear trend towards a strong preference for crude oil investments within the QDII sector.In this current market climate,technology-focused QDIIs,previously dominant,have seemingly waned,making room for resource-based funds to glean attention from investors.This shift is critical as it reflects broader market dynamics and investor sentiments.

Data has come to light highlighting the stark differences between the performance of resource-based funds and those centered around technology.For example,in stark contrast to the artifice of artificial intelligence funds that have been gaining traction in the Chinese market,the QDII sector has primarily witnessed a one-sided rise due to resource-themed products,most notably those focused on crude oil.

Take,for instance,the performance of specific funds: the Southern Crude Oil QDII has reported positive returns for nine out of ten trading days recently.Similarly,the E-Fund Crude Oil QDII achieved positive results in ten out of eleven trading days,while the Harvest Crude Oil QDII recorded gains on eight out of ten.Collectively,these strong performances have ensured that nine out of the top ten QDII products currently are linked to resources such as oil and gold.

Conversely,technology-focused QDIIs have faced significant losses since the year began.This has resulted in over a 15-percentage-point performance gap between the leading crude oil QDII funds and their struggling tech counterparts.Such figures highlight the current market’s preference for crude oil investments,which are benefiting from favorable conditions and heightened demand.

The surge in crude oil QDIIs can be attributed to a multitude of external factors,including prevailing conditions in international markets and shifting policy landscapes.Various institutional investors have reasoned that the strong performance of major commodities,including crude oil,particularly during the winter energy peak periods,correlates with unexpectedly robust macroeconomic data from the United States and geopolitical tensions influencing trade dynamics.

From a macroeconomic standpoint,recent readings from the U.S.economy have outperformed expectations in terms of growth and inflation,contributing to upward pressure on commodity prices.Additionally,the impact of intensified sanctions against Russia's energy sector has exacerbated supply constraints,with estimates suggesting that geopolitical disruptions could affect oil prices by approximately $10 per barrel.Evidently,while crude oil QDIIs might not sustain dominance over longer periods,the prevailing high price expectations are likely to provide them with a significant boost in the near term.

Will there be a potential resurgence in their scale?Many investors are currently optimistic that the renewed strength of crude oil QDIIs indicates a comeback of the spectacular market performances reminiscent of four years prior.The posturing of these funds is also encouraging the possibility of a significant inflow back into crude oil-themed products.

Reflecting back to 2021,crude oil QDIIs were at the forefront of market performance.Data from that year shows that the top ten QDII funds exclusively comprised oil-related products,boasting returns exceeding 50% for several funds.This impressive performance captured investor attention and dramatically increased the scale of many crude oil QDII funds.

For instance,the Southern Fund's Southern Crude Oil QDII marked an impressive 52.97% return in 2021,with assets soaring to approximately 1.7 billion yuan.Similarly,the E-Fund Crude Oil QDII achieved a staggering 54.38% return that year,more than doubling its assets to over 700 million yuan.This significant growth was largely attributed to positive investor sentiment surrounding crude oil investments.

However,the remarkable achievements of 2021 did not endure for long.As tech-focused QDIIs gained more traction and various market cycles impacted the oil sector,substantial capital fled from the previously high-flying crude oil QDIIs.This pattern led many to wonder whether the optimism surrounding oil-related funds could sustain its momentum in the long term.

Now,as crude oil QDIIs rise again,the expectations for scaling these funds are beginning to solidify.Investor confidence is visibly returning,sparking hope for a revival and renewal of interest in commodity-focused investments.

Fueling these reinvigorated expectations are the event-driven factors affecting oil prices.Fund managers have largely concurred that the current landscape features low global crude oil inventories and sustained uncertainties around supply,nurturing expectations for upward price elasticity.This dynamism has only amplified as the government maintains a relaxed but vigilant stance towards the unfolding energy landscape.

For instance,Song Qing,a manager at the Noah Oil and Gas Energy QDII fund,noted that international oil prices are continuing their upward trajectory with Brent crude trading at $79.76 per barrel—an increase of 4.25%—and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices rising by $3.53,now at $76.57 per barrel.This upward trend reflects solid support underpinned by robust macroeconomic indicators.

Song further elucidated that the government's recent announcement of a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia,targeting major enterprises in oil and gas production,has further reinforced the market’s bullish outlook on crude prices.The resulting market dynamics have led to a price shift in Brent crude from $76.92 to $79.76 per barrel.

This ongoing evaluation of the oil market environment and its influences is essential.As geopolitical tensions continue to be a significant concern,investors must strategically assess their involvement in the oil market.The implication is the need for a carefully tuned approach,emphasizing macroeconomic turbulence,ongoing data analysis,and responsiveness to immediate events impacting the sector.