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Bull Markets No Guarantee Against Losses

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On September 24, a significant surge in China's stock markets sparked excitement among investors, who believed a bull market was on the horizonThe Shanghai Composite Index dramatically recovered from its previous close of 2748.92 points to peak at 3674.4 points by October 8, showcasing an impressive increase of 925.48 points. This duality of optimism intensified as a wave of new investors entered the A-share market, ignited during the National Day holidayOnline financial discussions echoed calls from international institutions advocating for overweighting Chinese assets. Investors across the board anticipated that the bull market had finally arrived, presenting a plethora of moneymaking opportunities.

Yet, are the prospects for making money in the stock market as straightforward as they seem? While it is statistically true that chances of profitability increase during a bull market compared to bearish conditions, individual investors might find themselves facing an uphill battle, potentially encountering greater losses than during downturns.

The first critical aspect to consider is the heightened volatility typical of bull marketsIncreased trading activities often lead to significant price swingsFor instance, the post-holiday fluctuations in the A-shares illustrated this clearlyOn October 8, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 10% at the opening but rapidly tumbled, hitting a low of 3187.99 points by October 10, reflecting a staggering maximum drop of 13.24%, with an average daily decline of about 4.41%. Such sharp decreases can pose severe repercussions for newly entered investors, as anyone who purchased stocks on October 8 could have faced over a 10% loss within just four trading days.

Contrasting this with earlier market behaviors, the Shanghai Composite reached its peak of 3731.69 points on February 18, 2021, only to drop to a low of 2635.09 points by February 5 of the following year, showcasing a shocking decline of 41.6% over a longer period

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While in a bear market, many investors had already exited well before these peaks and troughs; a critical lesson remains that volatility can yield substantial losses.

Moreover, the individual stocks within this turbulent market exhibited even more pronounced fluctuations, particularly with those subject to daily price limits of 20% or even 30%. These stocks often draw investors eager to capitalize on their rapid upward trajectory, yet it’s crucial to heed the fact that such haste can just as easily lead to quicker downturnsFor instance, a couple of down-limit days can equal or surpass losses seen in a prolonged market decline.

Another noteworthy concern in a bull market is the rapid rotation of sectorsWith the growing scale of the market, not all stocks can rise concurrently, resulting in significant capital rotation between different sectorsA recent example involves the soaring broker shares, which outpaced overall market growthOnce these broker stocks correct, the question arises: will they appreciate again, or will investor focus shift to a new sector? Such dynamics emphasize the critical need for investors to time their entries effectivelyFrequent changes in holdings, driven by envy of faster gains in other stocks, often lead to losses far exceeding any realized gains.

Lastly, as the market heats up, many investors find themselves lulled into a false sense of security and lower risk awareness, subsequently increasing their investment in stocksFor instance, recent market enthusiasm has led many new investors, some initially contributing only a small sum, to escalate their investments, often borrowing money to enhance their stakesSuch amplifications of risk can threaten devastating losses.

Taking the current market conditions as a case study, many new shareholders who've made modest gains might feel emboldened to increase their stakes, elevating their investment levels from a basic 10,000 to 100,000 yuan, dramatically increasing potential losses

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